What happened
Speaking at a COP31 panel in Antalya, Al Gore said 2026 could be remembered as a turning point, citing an expected fall in global carbon emissions. The forecast from the Global Carbon Project is for fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to decline by 0.4% in 2026.
However, an analysis published by İklim Haber argues that the projected reduction is chiefly linked to an energy-price shock and tighter supply following the Iran war, rather than a structural fall driven by clean-energy deployment. The study team attributes a 0.39 billion-tonne reduction to energy prices and other factors.
Economic growth is estimated to add 0.78 billion tonnes of emissions. Solar and wind avoid 0.49 billion tonnes, while electric vehicles avoid 0.06 billion tonnes. Without the price-and-supply effect, clean technologies would still leave fossil emissions about 0.23 billion tonnes, or 0.6%, higher.
The decline is concentrated in oil, whose emissions are projected to fall 1.9%. Fuel prices rose by 10% to 50% in the United States, China and the EU, depending on fuel and period. Electric-vehicle growth accounts for roughly one-fifth of the reduction in oil emissions. Coal emissions, meanwhile, are expected to increase by 0.6%.
Why it matters
For businesses exposed to fuel costs in Türkiye and the EU, the analysis underlines the risk of treating lower emissions caused by costly energy as evidence of durable decarbonisation. A reversal in oil prices or supply conditions could lift emissions again.
The article also highlights a distinction relevant to Türkiye's energy plans. Electrification can reduce emissions only when the additional electricity is generated from low-carbon sources; expanding electricity use supplied by coal does not deliver the same climate outcome.
Background
Fossil emissions also fell in 2009 during the global financial crisis and in 2020 during the pandemic. In both cases, emissions rose after the economic disruption eased. The forecast range for 2026 runs from a 1.5% decline to a 0.6% increase, so an increase remains possible.
When deforestation and peat fires are included, total CO2 emissions are estimated to rise from 42.8 billion tonnes to 43.3 billion tonnes. The expected annual increase in atmospheric CO2 is broadly similar to that recorded in 2025.
What's next
The study estimates that clean technologies could offset 64% to 79% of emissions growth from demand by 2028. Even under both current-policy and faster-transition scenarios, 2028 emissions remain above 2025 levels.
