What happened
An International Energy Agency analysis commissioned by Türkiye and Australia for COP31-related discussions finds that electricity could provide 33% of global final energy demand in 2035. That would represent an increase from its current 23% share.
The assessment examines the scope to accelerate electrification across regions and end-use sectors. It bases its estimate on technologies already on the market and energy prices comparable with those before the latest supply shock.
The result places a proposed 35% electrification level within closer reach, according to the analysis. It also considers the effects of more rapid electrification on energy security, competitiveness and climate objectives.
Why it matters
For countries that import fuels, the faster-electrification case could reduce energy-import expenditure by more than $400 billion by 2035, the analysis says. Global oil consumption could be 18 million barrels per day lower at that point, with electric vehicles accounting for much of the reduction.
It further estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from transport, buildings and industry would fall by 40% in this case. The scale of the projected shift means electrifying vehicles, heating and industrial processes must be matched by reliable, adequately sized power systems.
Potential applications vary between markets. In developing economies, the assessment highlights electric agricultural pumps, two- and three-wheel vehicles, and small enterprises. It says public policy may need to help some households and businesses address initial costs so that electrification’s benefits are more broadly accessible.
What organisations should do next
Energy users and policymakers should assess electrification plans alongside electricity-supply and network requirements, rather than treating end-use conversion as a standalone measure. The analysis identifies additional generation, investment in grids, system flexibility and management of security risks as requirements for capturing the potential.
Businesses with exposure to imported fuels can use the 2035 outlook to test where electrification could reduce cost and supply risks, while accounting for connection capacity, power availability and flexibility needs. Governments can focus support on the upfront barriers identified for households and smaller firms.
