WMO expects El Niño to peak in December and continue to February 2027

What happened

The World Meteorological Organization has forecast a further strengthening of El Niño ahead of a projected peak in December. The UN agency expects the climate pattern to remain in place until February 2027.

In its monthly climate bulletin, WMO said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could rise to 3.7°C above seasonal norms during October to December. That projected departure is greater than the 2.6°C anomaly recorded between November 2015 and January 2016, according to the organisation.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the probability of El Niño lasting through February 2027 is close to 100%. She also said it could become one of the strongest such events observed since 1950.

Climate and resilience teams should follow subsequent WMO updates and review exposure to heat, drought and heavy-rain disruption in relevant operations and supply chains.

Why it matters

El Niño describes unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The phenomenon occurs every few years and is associated with higher global temperatures and shifts in rainfall across large regions.

Those shifts can mean drier conditions in some places and intense precipitation in others. The forecast therefore matters for organisations whose planning depends on water availability, agricultural conditions, infrastructure resilience or weather-sensitive logistics.

The wider temperature context is already unusually warm. Copernicus Climate Change Service data cited by İklim Haber put the global average temperature for August at 16.96°C, equal to July 2023 as the warmest month on record.

Forecast context

WMO’s outlook concerns tropical Pacific sea-surface conditions, rather than a policy or regulatory measure. Its central forecast is for intensification before December, followed by persistence into early 2027.

The agency’s projected October–December anomaly would set a markedly higher benchmark than the prior 2.6°C departure it identified for late 2015 and early 2016. The eventual scale and regional effects will depend on how the event develops and on local climate conditions.

What to watch

The next WMO bulletins will indicate whether Pacific temperatures track the forecast path towards a December maximum. Organisations can use those updates alongside regional meteorological information when reviewing near-term climate-risk assumptions.