BBVA Research sees 2.3–2.5°C warming under fully implemented current policies

What happened

BBVA Research has said the next phase of climate action should concentrate on executing commitments already made. Its assessment puts projected global warming at about 2.3–2.5°C where existing policies are implemented in full, according to İklim Haber.

That outcome would remain above the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature objective. For sustainability teams, the immediate task is therefore to test whether their transition plans have identified funding, delivery owners and measures of progress—not simply targets.

The analysis comes as preparations continue for COP31, which Türkiye will host in Antalya from 9 to 20 November 2026. BBVA Research identifies adequate finance, clearly designated implementing actors and mechanisms to measure results as central requirements for turning goals into action.

Why it matters

The gap between the assessment’s 2.3–2.5°C range and the 1.5°C objective points to an execution challenge as well as an ambition challenge. Governments, companies and financial institutions will need to translate targets into policies, investment decisions and delivery arrangements that can be tracked.

COP31 is expected to bring discussion of sustainable finance together with energy transition, clean technology, industrial transformation, circular economy, resilient cities and biodiversity. The analysis places private companies and financial institutions alongside public sources as relevant participants in financing the transition.

For organisations preparing for the summit, this suggests focusing on implementation evidence: the investments available, the parties responsible, and the indicators used to establish whether initiatives are producing outcomes.

Finance context

OECD figures cited in the report show climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries for developing countries rose from around $50 billion in 2013 to above $130 billion in both 2023 and 2024.

At COP29, participants established a goal of at least $300 billion a year in public finance for developing countries by 2035. A broader objective seeks to mobilise $1.3 trillion annually from public and private finance. These targets underline the scale of funding expected to support delivery before and beyond COP31.

What to watch

Attention will now turn to how COP31 preparations frame implementation, financing and accountability ahead of the Antalya meeting. The COP29 finance objectives have a 2035 horizon.