What happened
İklim Masası convened an online press briefing on 9 September to discuss expectations for COP31, which is set to take place in Antalya under Türkiye’s presidency in two months. For sustainability professionals, the immediate points to watch are whether financing advances, how fossil fuels feature in the talks and whether Türkiye signals further domestic policy changes before the summit.
Semra Cerit Mazlum of Marmara University and Ümit Şahin, climate-change studies coordinator at Istanbul Policy Center and an İklim Masası advisory-board member, considered the summit’s likely agenda, potential negotiating obstacles and the consequences of the US leaving the climate regime. They also discussed how Türkiye might use the presidency to increase its international influence.
Şahin identified two goals for Türkiye: securing parties’ backing for an electrification target and establishing the Implementation Bridge as a lasting mechanism. He said other countries would assess the meeting against different measures, notably demonstrable progress on climate finance. In his view, omitting fossil fuels from the COP31 discussion could lead many to regard the meeting as unsuccessful.
Why it matters
Mazlum described COP31 as an important point for climate diplomacy, against a backdrop that includes the 1.5°C threshold being exceeded, an oil crisis, wars, the US departure from the climate regime and the experience of an implementation-focused COP.
For Türkiye, the presidency could provide a diplomatic opening, but the speakers tied that prospect to credibility at home. Mazlum said countries seeking influence through alliances need to show that they are implementing the commitments they articulate. She suggested that higher national targets and a clear intention to move away from fossil fuels could improve Türkiye’s ability to operate within coalitions and alliances.
Şahin likewise said that a more ambitious presidency posture should be matched by changes in national policy. He raised possible pre-COP31 steps: a pledge not to build new coal-fired power stations, a prohibition on plastic-waste imports and signatures on action-agenda declarations that Türkiye has not previously signed. These were presented as potential actions rather than announced government measures.
What to watch before COP31
The next two months will show whether Türkiye adopts additional climate commitments and can build wider support for its priorities. The treatment of finance and fossil fuels in the run-up to Antalya will also be central to how the presidency is judged internationally.
