What happened
At an online press briefing on 9 September, academics discussed expectations for COP31, which is scheduled to take place in Antalya in two months under Türkiye’s presidency.
Semra Cerit Mazlum of Marmara University said the meeting comes at a consequential point for climate diplomacy. She cited the passing of the 1.5°C threshold, an oil crisis, wars, the United States’ withdrawal from the climate regime and the experience of an “Implementation COP” as overlapping pressures on the process.
Ümit Şahin, climate change studies coordinator at Istanbul Policy Center and a member of the Climate Table advisory board, said the definition of success would depend on the observer. He said Türkiye has two stated aims: securing party support for an electrification target and making the Implementation Bridge a lasting mechanism.
Şahin said international assessments would also turn on whether the meeting delivers concrete movement on climate finance. He added that failure to address fossil fuels could lead many observers to regard the conference as unsuccessful.
Why it matters
The COP presidency gives Türkiye an opportunity to demonstrate diplomatic leadership, but speakers linked that prospect to credible action at home. Mazlum said a middle power can build influence through alliances and by showing that its commitments are implemented.
For businesses and investors, the discussion points to possible policy signals before the summit. These include a potential commitment not to build new coal-fired power plants, a ban on plastic-waste imports and participation in action-agenda declarations that Türkiye has not previously signed. No decision on these measures was reported.
The briefing did not set out specific EU-related obligations. However, progress on electrification, finance and fossil-fuel policy would be relevant to companies tracking Türkiye’s climate-policy direction and its international positioning.
What's next
Şahin said Türkiye has two months before COP31 to substantiate its leadership ambitions through domestic commitments. The summit in Antalya will test whether its proposed electrification target and permanent Implementation Bridge gain wider backing, alongside progress on finance and fossil fuels.
