What happened
The Global Carbon Budget assessment projects a marginal fall in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2026. The report estimates a 0.4% decline from the previous year, while emissions from oil alone could fall by about 2%.
The assessment links the slowdown partly to higher oil and gas prices following the war involving the US, Israel and Iran. It also points to wider deployment of lower-cost solar and wind power, and to drivers using less fuel and moving towards electric vehicles.
Researchers presented the findings at COP31 climate talks in Antalya, Türkiye. The assessment, produced by researchers from universities and scientific institutions worldwide, indicates that emissions from coal, oil and gas will be broadly unchanged this year rather than entering a sustained decline.
Fossil-fuel emissions are estimated at about 38.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2026. Growing electricity demand is continuing as more people gain access to power and incomes rise, although the report says solar and wind generation and electric vehicles are meeting around two-thirds of that additional demand.
Why it matters
For businesses in Türkiye and the EU, the findings underline that renewable electricity and electrified transport are increasingly affecting energy demand. However, the projected fall is small and the report does not treat it as evidence that the global emissions peak has been secured.
The assessment says stronger investment in renewables and low-carbon technologies, including electric vehicles, is needed for annual emissions to fall consistently. It also identifies risks to progress, including more coal use in India, lower oil prices and US political support for fossil fuels.
Background
Rising emissions from deforestation and land-use change are outweighing the expected reduction in fossil-fuel emissions. Large fires in south-east Asia and the continued conversion of natural land to agriculture are among the factors cited.
As a result, total carbon emissions are forecast to increase from 42.8 billion tonnes last year to 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026. The assessment puts the remaining carbon budget associated with limiting a lasting breach of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels at roughly 150 billion tonnes.
What's next
If emissions continue at the current pace, the remaining carbon budget could be used up in less than four years. The researchers say a one-year emissions decline does not by itself demonstrate structural change, particularly when land-use emissions continue to rise.
