What happened
TEMA Foundation has reviewed the outcomes of 30 annual UN climate conferences ahead of COP31, which Türkiye is set to chair and host. It argues that the gap between commitments and delivery remains wide.
The foundation said atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was 360.82 parts per million (ppm) in 1995, the year of the first COP. It rose to 363.73 ppm in 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, and to 400.83 ppm in 2015, when the Paris Agreement was agreed. The figure reached 427.35 ppm in 2025, an increase of roughly 18% over 30 years.
TEMA said COP31 should concentrate on delivering existing commitments rather than simply announcing further ones. Its assessment covers fossil-fuel use, climate finance, loss and damage, forests, the 1.5°C objective and carbon markets.
Why it matters
For Türkiye, the COP31 presidency and hosting role will place the country at the centre of discussions on how climate commitments are put into practice. TEMA said Türkiye’s nationally determined contribution does not aim to cut greenhouse-gas emissions immediately, but envisages emissions rising before declining.
The foundation also questioned the role of carbon-market mechanisms, arguing that they can enable emissions to be shifted between countries rather than reduced at source. It called for a fair, scheduled and binding pathway away from fossil fuels, finance for loss and damage that does not create further debt, and emissions targets aligned with 1.5°C.
Background
TEMA noted that the Copenhagen COP15 commitment to provide US$100 billion in climate finance each year was reached only in 2022. It said 69% of that amount was provided as loans rather than grants.
It also said total pledges to the Loss and Damage Fund, which became operational at COP28, stand at about US$822 million. The foundation contrasted this with annual climate-related losses running into hundreds of billions of dollars.
According to TEMA, more than 80 countries backed a fossil-fuel transition roadmap at COP30 in Belém in 2025, but it was not included in the final text. It added that a roadmap to halt deforestation was also left outside the formal UN negotiating process.
What's next
TEMA says COP31 should establish tools that ensure commitments are carried out. It wants negotiators to address whether a fossil-fuel transition roadmap will enter the formal process, whether loss-and-damage support will be delivered as grants, and whether deforestation and emissions-reduction plans will be made part of the negotiations.
Read the original report from İklim Haber.
