Türkiye’s COP31 role tested by lack of coal-exit plan

What happened

Türkiye has taken on the COP31 presidency and announced a global electrification target as part of the summit’s Action Agenda. However, it has not announced a timetable or formal policy for ending coal-fired power generation, EkoIQ reported in an interview with İstanbul Policy Center researcher Onur Akgül.

Akgül said research, including work by the centre, indicates that Türkiye could phase coal out of electricity generation through planned action over the coming decade. He argued that the government would need to publish a timetable and targets so that affected groups could prepare for the transition.

The interview also pointed to a tension between the electrification agenda and continued fossil-fuel investment. It cited plans for new coal capacity in Kahramanmaraş and Çanakkale, while Türkiye is also expected to discuss a fossil-fuel transition roadmap and a just-transition mechanism at COP31.

Why it matters

Electrification reduces emissions only when the additional electricity comes from low-carbon sources, Akgül said. A shift in transport and other end uses from fossil fuels to electricity would not deliver the same climate benefit if coal or gas remained central to power generation.

For companies and workers affected by the power system, a published coal-exit pathway would provide a basis for investment and transition planning. The source material does not identify specific regulatory requirements or deadlines for businesses.

The issue also affects the credibility of Türkiye’s COP31 role. Akgül said a country leading an electrification initiative while pursuing new coal investments faces a conflict between its international climate agenda and domestic energy policy.

Background

Türkiye’s 2022 National Energy Plan expects electrification to reach 24.9% in 2035. Akgül described this as leaving a 10% gap for Türkiye and identified coal retirement as the main route to closing it.

Türkiye has also announced a target of 20 GW of nuclear capacity. The interview said this is similar in scale to the country’s coal capacity, which it put at around 20 GW, and warned that nuclear generation should not become the substitute for an organised coal transition.

What's next

The source material identifies 2035 as the date in the National Energy Plan’s electrification projection. It does not provide a date for a coal-exit decision. COP31 is expected to consider a fossil-fuel transition roadmap and arrangements for a just transition.