UNEP sees 2.8°C warming under current policies; Türkiye’s emissions rose 24 MtCO2e

What happened

UNEP’s 2026 emissions-gap assessment concludes that global warming could reach 2.8°C by the end of the century if current policies continue. Even if countries deliver their existing national climate pledges in full, the projected increase is 2.6°C.

The assessment says the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded. To bring warming back to 1.5°C by 2100 with a 50% chance of success, global emissions would need to fall 18% from 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. Current national pledges, if fully implemented, would cut emissions by 5–8% in 2030 and 11–15% in 2035.

Türkiye recorded the second-largest rise in emissions among G20 members in 2025, according to the assessment, with an increase of 24 MtCO2e. The United States recorded the largest rise, at 133 MtCO2e.

Why it matters

The assessment finds that Türkiye’s existing policies would produce emissions 20% below the level set out in its nationally determined contribution (NDC). It reaches the same broad conclusion for several other G20 members, including China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa: their current policies would result in emissions lower than their stated NDC levels.

For Turkish companies tracking climate-policy direction, the finding indicates that the current NDC does not require measures beyond those already reflected in existing policies. The report also places Türkiye’s emissions trend alongside its role as COP31 host and president.

Background

The pathway examined by UNEP also relies on the permanent storage of 320 gigatonnes of CO2 through carbon-removal technologies. That volume is about eight times global emissions in 2024, the assessment says, and involves technological and socioeconomic uncertainties.

It also identifies a shift away from fossil fuels as central to lowering warming. By 2035, compared with 2025, coal’s share of total energy supply would need to decline by at least 55%, oil’s by 15% and gas’s by 5% under the pathway described.

What's next

The report’s near-term benchmark is 2030, when emissions would need to be 18% below 2025 levels. By 2035, the required reduction rises to 45%, followed by 69% by 2040.